India.

Research notes

• 29 Apr 2026

  Steel, Towers, and a Supercycle

  An equity research note on Transrail Lighting (NSE: TRANSRAILL), BUY at Rs. 598 with a 24-to-36 month target of Rs. 800. Probability-weighted return of +33 percent across bear, base, and bull cases. Three legs support the call: vertical integration into in-house tower fabrication captures 400 basis points of EBITDA margin per contract, India is entering its second power-transmission supercycle that takes the addressable annual market from Rs. 100,000 crore to Rs. 130,000 crore by FY28, and the stock trades at a discount to peers despite leading the group on growth, ROIC, EBITDA margin, and balance sheet leverage. Position sized at 4 percent of portfolio at starter level, 8 percent at full size.

• 26 Apr 2026

  The Reflexive Trinity in Indian Equities

  A 22-month panel test, June 2024 to March 2026, of whether the Indian equity market is now jointly governed by domestic flow, fiscal credit divergence, and the rates cycle. Ten pre-registered hypotheses, seven supported, three rejected. The textbook FPI-led model is no longer the dominant lens. The marginal mover of price across this panel is domestic systematic flow plus the sectoral credit cycle, with rates and the rupee acting as second-order conditioning variables. The SIP stoppage ratio is the single signal worth watching from here.