The Reflexive Trinity in Indian Equities

Foreign investors sold a record 1.18 lakh crore. The Nifty had its worst month since Covid. Indian retail SIPs hit an all-time high. All in the same month. The textbook says these three things should not happen together. Here is what is going on.

A 22-month panel test, June 2024 to March 2026, of whether the Indian equity market is now jointly governed by domestic flow, fiscal credit divergence, and the rates cycle. Ten pre-registered hypotheses, seven supported, three rejected. The textbook FPI-led model is no longer the dominant lens. The marginal mover of price across this panel is domestic systematic flow plus the sectoral credit cycle, with rates and the rupee acting as second-order conditioning variables. The SIP stoppage ratio is the single signal worth watching from here.

• India
• Macro